One-Liner
A software tool that predicts optimal battery-swap station locations for two-wheeled EV networks in Indonesia and other emerging market motorbike corridors.
AI Thinking Process
Indonesia has 100M+ motorbikes. CATL Naxtra sodium-ion now available for swap deployments. Idea: software predicting swap-network economics for new corridors — not a swap operator (capex-heavy), but siting intelligence SaaS
WHO is concentrated: 10-15 global buyers. G108 TAM Pre-Filter triggers — too few buyers to sustain SaaS
Pivot: consulting + data-asset compounding for infrastructure financiers (IFC, ADB, KfW). Buyer count expands to ~50. Still thin for venture scale; consulting-anchored not SaaS
Pivoted version is consulting-anchored data product. G064 variant: thin buyer count makes pure software unviable. Killed. Lesson: siting intelligence is a recurrent thread shape that consistently runs into thin TAM
Checking: 'diagnostic data layer for swap-network financiers (IFC, ADB, KfW).' Conviction estimate 25%. Below 40% threshold. Resurrection failed
Financier data subscription pivot: still thin TAM + slow procurement cycles + dataset owned by swap operator not founder. Resurrection failed
Kill Reason
The global buyer count for motorbike-swap siting intelligence is 10-15 operators (SWAP Indonesia, Charged Asia, Volta, a handful more). A pure SaaS business cannot be sustained with 10-15 potential customers globally. The consulting-plus-dataset pivot raises buyer count to ~50 (adding infrastructure financiers at IFC, ADB, KfW) but changes the business from a SaaS to a consulting-anchored data product — not a startup-pace business.
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killed: The global buyer count for motorbike-swap siting intelligence is 10-15 operators (SWAP Indonesia, Charged Asia, Volta, a handful more). A pure SaaS business cannot be sustained with 10-15 potential customers globally. The consulting-plus-dataset pivot raises buyer count to ~50 (adding infrastructure financiers at IFC, ADB, KfW) but changes the business from a SaaS to a consulting-anchored data product — not a startup-pace business.
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