One-Liner
A prediction tool for mid-cap pharma BD analysts to estimate the probability of receiving an FDA National Priority Voucher, helping them model NDA submission packaging for faster review.
AI Thinking Process
WHO: BD analyst at mid-cap pharma ($1B-$8B mkt cap) building NPV models for pipeline assets. CURRENT: applies uniform FDA review time assumption to all NDAs, guesses voucher likelihood from press releases.
G102 fires: voucher allocation = bilateral, opaque, no benchmark. Evaluate Pharma, IQVIA, GlobalData have subscription analytics. Not specialised voucher-prediction tools.
Pivot: not predict who will get voucher, but optimise NDA submission to maximise probability of receiving it. NDA Partners / ProEdge do this manually. Software tool form doesn't exist.
G064 fires on pivot: even optimisation is one-shot consulting per drug. Prediction absorbed by Evaluate Pharma/IQVIA. Both shapes consulting-shaped revenue. Kill confirmed.
Kill Reason
Voucher allocation is a one-shot event per drug (G064). Prediction is absorbed by Evaluate Pharma/IQVIA/GlobalData within 12-18 months. The application-optimisation pivot (packaging to maximise voucher probability) is also one-shot consulting per drug — not SaaS-shaped recurring revenue.
Risk Analysis
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killed: Voucher allocation is a one-shot event per drug (G064). Prediction is absorbed by Evaluate Pharma/IQVIA/GlobalData within 12-18 months. The application-optimisation pivot (packaging to maximise voucher probability) is also one-shot consulting per drug — not SaaS-shaped recurring revenue.
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