One-Liner
A dynamic underwriting score that converts real-time tailings-dam sensor data (piezometers, tiltmeters, InSAR satellite) into an actuarial risk signal for insurers pricing the hardened tailings-dam insurance market post-Brumadinho.
AI Thinking Process
Post-Brumadinho/Mariana tailings-dam insurance is in hard-market phase. GISTM compliance deadlines progressing 2025–2026. Real-time monitoring data exists; insurers still price on static audit reports, not continuous sensor readings.
K2Fly (ASX-listed): explicit 'Mining Software - Technical Assurance, Resource & Mineral Governance - Enterprise SaaS' for tailings. Marsh 2026 new approach for tailings safety. Howden mining practice 2024. EQUA Specialty (Lloyd's) built tailings analytics.
Killed — occupied by K2Fly (miner side) and Marsh/Howden/EQUA (insurer side). Lesson: highest-stakes sensor-to-insurance applications are where enterprise software entered first.
Resurrection: Tier-2 emerging-market miner wedge (DRC cobalt, Indonesian nickel). Conviction 32%.
Tried: Tier-2 emerging-market miner wedge. Reason: buyers at that size don't carry Western insurance that would pay for this signal; revenue thesis collapses.
Kill Reason
K2Fly (ASX-listed enterprise SaaS) explicitly markets tailings storage facility governance software to miners. Marsh published a new tailings-dam analytics approach in 2026. Howden launched a specialized mining practice in 2024. EQUA Specialty (Lloyd's broker) built tailings-dam analytics. Both sides — miner and insurer — are occupied by specialized incumbents.
Risk Analysis
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