One-Liner
A benchmark database for bilateral water-rights transfers in Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah — targeting data center developers and agricultural buyers competing for the same scarce water.
AI Thinking Process
Western US appropriative-rights states — transfers bilateral, priced nowhere. WestWater Research sells annual subscription reports. Data center developers (Meta, Microsoft, Google) now compete with agriculture for water rights.
G102 Verb Transplant (bilateral negotiation intelligence) plus Impossibility Negation (AI makes state filings searchable). G102 applied same as T1.
Market is small: ~200 real buyers in western US hyperscale water rights. At $60K–$120K seat, TAM is $15M–$25M ARR ceiling — feature-sized, not category. Global extension requires three-country research lift per new market.
Killed — TAM ceiling structurally caps to $20M ARR specialty. Lesson: G102 markets are still subject to TAM gates; not every opaque bilateral market is venture-scale.
Resurrection check: pivot = bundle every opaque water-rights market globally. Conviction 25%. Per-market research cost compounds faster than TAM; different buyer in each country.
Tried: global opaque-water-rights bundle. Reason: per-market complexity compounds faster than TAM and buyers are heterogeneous across countries.
Kill Reason
The number of real buyers is roughly 200 corporate and institutional accounts. At $60K–$120K per seat, the addressable revenue ceiling is $15M–$25M ARR — a feature-sized specialty, not a category business. A global bundle (Chilean mining, Australian Murray-Darling, Spanish transfers) requires separate legal research and local partners per market; complexity compounds faster than the TAM grows.
Risk Analysis
Risk analysis available for latest engine ideas.
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