AI Thinking Process
Pass 1 conviction: 47%. Passed initial screening and advanced to deepening phase.
Kill type: FEATURE_COLLAPSE. Conviction dropped from 47% to 22%. Cochlear Ltd and Eli Lilly (Akouos parent) both have 6-12 month credible paths to ship this as a bundled feature — Cochlear through existing AVT-therapist relationships at every target academic medical center, Eli Lilly through the drug + companion app patient-support infrastructure. The 50-baby/year US TAM does not generate enough switching-cost gravity to defend a standalone tool against either bundled offer.
Kill Reason
Cochlear Ltd and Eli Lilly (Akouos parent) both have 6-12 month credible paths to ship this as a bundled feature — Cochlear through existing AVT-therapist relationships at every target academic medical center, Eli Lilly through the drug + companion app patient-support infrastructure. The 50-baby/year US TAM does not generate enough switching-cost gravity to defend a standalone tool against either bundled offer.
Risk Analysis
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killed: Three compounding factors: (1) CFPB guidance (Circular 2024-06) was rescinded in 2025 — the regulatory foundation is weaker than assumed; (2) Legal void problem: until courts rule whether AI hiring tools are consumer reporting agencies under FCRA, a dispute tool is filing disputes that screening companies may legally ignore; (3) Historical near-duplicate of 'Employment Screening FCRA Dispute Kit' (20260323-crossdomain, COLD) — the CFPB guidance rescission provides a stronger kill reason than the original.
killed: Template offspring of today's CPG Reformulation Intelligence Platform (G056). Same data source approach (public ingredient databases + web scraping), same mechanism (automated diff detection). Different buyer segment (cosmetics regulatory affairs vs. CPG competitive intelligence) but not a new product — a market expansion path for the same company.
killed: AI-washing of layoffs may be a 2025-2026 narrative phenomenon, not a structural market. Per-lawyer frequency (5-20 AI-washing cases/year) makes SaaS unviable — per-report pricing ($500-2,000) is consulting, not software. G028 crisis signal trap applies.